Effects of Roadway and Traffic Characteristics on Accidents Frequency at City Entrance Zone

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Chief of Research Office at Applied Research Center of NAJA Traffic Police, Tehran, Iran

2 Traffic Department, Rahshar International Group, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Built Environment (Logistic, Mobility and Urban Planning), NHTV Breda University of Applied Science, Breda, The Netherlands


More than 60% of accidents in Iran occur within 30 kilometers of cities entrance roads. Therefore the number of accidents per kilometer in these regions, in contrast to the other parts of roads is very considerable. The city of Tehran, as the capital of Iran, is the cross point of major arterials of passenger and freight transportation. Thus the evaluation of road safety, entering and exiting the city in the 30 kilometers buffer, can be considered to improve countrywide road safety. To investigate the effects of roadway characteristics and traffic conditions, including number of traffic violations, on accident frequency within 30 km of Tehran entrance roads, Poisson and Negative Binomial regression model were calibrated in this study. Although the goodness of fit index in Poisson model is much greater than the Negative Binomial model, the accident data dispersion in this study implies that Negative Binomial model is more appropriate to show the influences of effective variables. According to results of modeling, the variables including average daily volume, share of heavy vehicles, average daily speed violations and number of direct accesses and interchanges have effective influence on accident frequencies. Controlling access to roads and using effective actions to reduce the speed and number of speed violation can be accounted as effective policies to reduce accident frequencies within 30 km of Tehran entrance roads.


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