International Journal of Transportation Engineering

International Journal of Transportation Engineering

Rural Crash Severity Modelling at Marginal Areas around Cities in Iran Using Ordinal Logistic Regression and Partial Proportional Odds Modelling Approaches

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Hamid Shamanian Esfahani 1
Seyed Teimour Hoseini 2
Reza Sakhaei 2
Majid Ehsani Sohi 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Amin University, Tehran, Iran
10.22119/ijte.2024.472865.1675
Abstract
Proof from earlier investigations indicates that many rural crashes happen in marginal areas around cities. Therefore, Exclusive crash severity models should be developed to pinpoint the factors linked to the increased likelihood of injury and fatality in these segments of rural roads. For this purpose, a partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model alongside the traditional ones including ordered logit (OL) and multinomial logit (MNL) models was utilized in this study to develop crash severity models for these segments of roads. The authors applied rural crash data gathered from highways that lead to Isfahan for modelling. The PPO model outperforms the traditional models, as demonstrated by comparing developed models. Also, the results indicate that rural crashes are more likely to be severe when the average speed exceeds 95 km/h, in multi-vehicle type crashes, in overturn-type crashes, when the at-fault vehicle is a truck/trailer, and when the at-fault or not-at-fault vehicle is a motorcycle. On the other hand, severe crashes in marginal areas around cities tend to decrease when a foreign vehicle is at fault and when the driver of the at-fault vehicle is 30 to 40 years old.
Keywords
Rural Highway
Crash severity
Partial Proportional Odds model
Ordered Logit Model
Multinomial Logit Model

 

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International Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 12, Issue 4 - Serial Number 48
Spring 2025
Pages 1973-1992