International Journal of Transportation Engineering

International Journal of Transportation Engineering

Covid-19 Impact on Rail and Air Modes: a SARIMA Model of Duration and Severity (Case Study: Iran)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Mohammad Amin Emami 1
AmirReza Mamdoohi 2
1 PhD candidate in Transportation Planning, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Eng. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Transportation Planning, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Eng. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
10.22119/ijte.2024.430752.1656
Abstract
People’s outdoor activities changed significantly as a result of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. People’s travel behavior was greatly affected by the change in their activities, and as a result, the demand for public transportation systems such as rail and air was dramatically reduced. Despite the existence of numerous studies relating to the impact of COVID-19 on rail and air travel demand, the extent of the impact of the pandemic on non-high-speed railway (HSR) and air travel is still unknown in developing countries in terms of intensity and duration. In this research, two SARIMA models have been calibrated to forecast travel demand for rail and air modes. This is done using monthly data on the number of passengers carried up to the date before COVID-19 outbreak. The forecasts from the mentioned models are assumed to represent travel demand in the absence of pandemic. According to the results, the demand for rail transportation has decreased by 46%, resulting in a reduction of 31.924 million passengers, while the demand for air travel has decreased by 34%, resulting in a reduction of 9.588 million passengers. Also, rail transportation reached normal conditions eight months later than air transportation (lack of pandemic impact on demand). This study is important to identify the behavior of non-HSR and air transportation modes in the face of future crises similar to COVID-19, which can lead to the optimal distribution of limited resources of developing countries in future crises.
Keywords
Railway passenger demand
Air passenger demand
COVID-19
Time series
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International Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 12, Issue 2 - Serial Number 46
Autumn 2024
Pages 1747-1761