Assessing Risk Factors Associated with Motorcycle Crash Severity in Mashhad, Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Postgraduate Student, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran

2 PhD, Assistant Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran

3 PhD, Associated Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran


Accurate assessment of motorcycle safety requires examining the complex relationships between vehicles, roads, and human factors involved in a crash. This study deals with the case study of Mashhad as one of the metropolises of the country. It investigates the role of different characteristics in the severity of motorcycle crashes by examining 9663 cases of motorcycle crashes in the three-year period from 2014 to 2016. For this purpose, the study uses the descriptive analysis of the data and a logistic regression model. The variables studied in this paper are divided into three categories: crash variables, environmental variables, and motorcyclist variables. Investigation of crash variables shows that the probability of fatal crashes increases from 22 to 10 in the morning. Further, the probability of a motorcyclist's death in crashes with heavy vehicles and crashes without another involved party is 3.27 and 4.41 times higher than that of a motorcyclist in a crash with light vehicles. Environmental variables indicate that the probability of more severe motorcycle crashes increases in roundabouts, roads with recreational use, and expressways. Further, the severity of crashes increases on highways and roads with shoulders, divided medians, higher speed limits, and roads without adequate lighting. In addition, the variables related to motorcyclists show that the probability of more severe crashes rises with the increasing age of motorcyclists. Finally, this study analysis the role of various factors, examines the problems in crash information, and offers solutions related to improving the safety of motorcyclists.


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