Identifying the factors affecting road accidents and providing multi-criteria hybrid decision-making methods for ranking hazardous points

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Semnan

2 Master of Science in Business Administration, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

3 M.S. in Industrial Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran


Traffic accidents and their consequences are among the major issues that need to be seriously addressed in today’s world. In this study, the prioritization of hazardous points on the roads is discussed, using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques considering different natural and environmental criteria affecting road accidents. The Neyshabour-Sabzevar and vice versa road axes in Khorasan province, Iran, are considered as a case study for the implementation of the proposed method. Initially, 20 criteria were identified in 4 different categories to prioritize the hazardous points using the literature review and the experts’ opinion. In this paper, the MDL  (Modified Digital Logic) and AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) methods are used to determine the criteria’s weights. By combining these techniques, four hybrid methods MDL-TOPSIS (Technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution), MDL-VIKOR (Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje), AHP-TOPSIS, and AHP-VIKOR are obtained to prioritize the mentioned points, each producing different results. Two models were used to obtain the final ranking. In the first model, the results of these four methods are integrated using the COPELAND method. In the second model, the entropy method (Emerging Network To Reduce Orwellian Potency Yield)  is used to modify the weight of the criteria. The innovation of the paper is presenting a new hybrid MCDM method that is used to prioritize hazardous points. Results showed that using the entropy method for modifying the weight of the criteria causes the methods to produce the same results.  Moreover, results show that the number of deadly injured casualty of an accident is the most important criterion. Additionally, Zafaranieh residential area gained the highest priority.


- Shafabakhsh, G.A., F. Fathi, and A. Zayerzadeh, Prioritization of eventful roads correction using artificial neural networks. Journal of modeling in engineering, 2010. 8(20): p. 71-81.
- Dehghan-Manshadi, B., et al., A novel method for materials selection in mechanical design: combination of non-linear normalization and a modified digital logic method. Materials & design, 2007. 28(1): p. 8-15.
- Beheshtinia, M.A. and V. Nemati-Abozar, A Novel Hybrid Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for Supplier Selection Problem (A Case Study in Advertising industry). Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2017. 9(4): p. 65-79.
- Beheshtinia, M.A. and S. Omidi, A hybrid MCDM approach for performance evaluation in the banking industry. Kybernetes, 2017. 46(8): p. 1386-1407.
- Sedady, F. and M.A. Beheshtinia, A novel MCDM model for prioritizing the renewable power plants’ construction. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 2019. 30(2): p. 383-399.
- Gangil, M. and M.k. Pardhan, Optimization the machining parameters by using VIKOR Method during EDM process of Titanium alloy. Materials Today: Proceedings, 2018. 5: p. 7486–7495.
- Geurts, K., et al., Identification and ranking of black spots: Sensitivity analysis. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2004. 1897: p. 34-42.
- Geurts, K., et al., Ranking and selecting dangerous crash locations: Correcting for the number of passengers and Bayesian ranking plots. Journal of safety research, 2006. 37(1): p. 83-91.
- Elvik, R., Comparative analysis of techniques for identifying locations of hazardous roads. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008. 2083: p. 72-75.
- Montella, A., A comparative analysis of hotspot identification methods. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2010. 42(2): p. 571-581.
- Reshma, E. and S.U. Sharif, Prioritization Of Accident Black Spots Using GIS. International Journal Of Emerging Technology And Advanced Engineering, 2012. 2(9): p. 117-122.
- Park, P.Y. and J. Young, Investigation of a supplementary tool to assist in the prioritization of emphasis areas in North American strategic highway safety plans. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2012. 45: p. 392-405.
- Kwak, H.C. and S. Kho, Predicting crash risk and identifying crash precursors on Korean expressways using loop detector data. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2016. 88: p. 9-19.
- Zhang, G., et al., Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2016. 87: p. 34-42.
- Kountouriotis, G. and N. Merat, Leading to distraction: Driver distraction, lead car, and road environment. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2016. 89: p. 22-30.
- Farajollahi, G. and M.R. Delavar, Assessing accident hotspots by using volunteered geographic information. Journal CleanWAS, 2017. 1(2): p. 14-17.
- Dereli, M.A. and S. Erdogan, A new model for determining the traffic accident black spots using GIS-aided spatial statistical methods. Transportation Research Part A, 2017. 103: p. 106-117.
- Hoe, L.W., et al., A Study on the Impact of Climate and Road Factors Towards Road Accidents in Malaysia with Analytic Hierarchy Process. American Journal of Environmental Policy and Management, 2018. 4(2): p. 54-59.
- Nenadić, D., Ranking dangerous sections of the road using the mcdm model. Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 2019. 2(1): p. 115-131.
- Tola, A.M. and A. Gebissa, Identifying Black Spot Accident Zones Using a Geographical Information System on Kombolcha-Dessie Road in Ethiopia. International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research (IJSBAR), 2019. 48(1): p. 66-79.
- Fernandez, J.J., et al., Driver's Road Accident Factor Prioritization using AHP in Relation to Mastery of Traffic Signs in the City of Manila. Transportation Research Procedia, 2020. 48: p. 1316-1324.
- Abdel-Basset, M., et al., A new hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach for location selection of sustainable offshore wind energy stations: A case study. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021. 280: p. 124462.
- Bakioglu, G. and A.O. Atahan, AHP integrated TOPSIS and VIKOR methods with Pythagorean fuzzy sets to prioritize risks in self-driving vehicles. Applied Soft Computing, 2021. 99: p. 106948.
- Sadeghi, A., E. Ayati, and M. Pirayesh Neghab, Identification and prioritization of hazardous road locations by segmentation and data envelopment analysis approach. PROMET-Traffic&Transportation, 2013. 25(2): p. 127-136.
- Al-Masaeid, H.R., Impact of pavement condition on rural road accidents. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 1997. 24(4): p. 523-531.