Modeling Multiple–Vehicle Property Damage Collisions in Urban Signalized Intersections


1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

2 MSc. Department of Civil Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering , Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashad, Iran


Development of disaggregate models for estimating different property damage collision type frequencies in urban intersections has rarely been studied, particularly in Iran. It seems very little research work being implemented for studying the effect factors on collision type frequency at intersections. The main objective of this paper is to develop suitable statistical models to predict types of property damage accident frequencies at signalized intersections approaches in the Mashhad of Iran based on geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics. Three negative binomial models are estimated for collisions occurred in four-leg signalized intersections in the city of Mashhad and their results were compared together. These models are total, rear-end and right angel collision models. The goodness of fit was assessed by statistic tests. The Incidence Rate Ratio is used to assess the effectiveness of independent variables on frequency of property damage collision. Validation of models was controlled using paired samples T-test method. Modeling collision types showed a strong relationship between frequency of property damage collision types and independent variables such as road geometry, the type of control system and traffic characteristics. The results of this study revealed that seven of independent variables considerably affect the safety of signalized intersections.


- Abdel-Aty, M. and Radwan E. (2000) Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 32, No. 5, pp. 633-642.

- Akin, D. and Akbaş, B. (2010) “A neural network (NN) model to predict intersection crashes based upon driver, vehicle and roadway surface characteristics”,  Journal of Scientific Research and Essays, Vol. 5, No. 19, pp. 2837-2847.

- Anastasopoulos, P. and Mannering, F.L. (2009) “A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 153-159.

- Bauer, K. and Harwood, D. (2000) “Statistical models of at-grade intersection accidents-addendum, Federal
Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., Report FHWA-RD-99-094.

- Belsley, D.A., Kuh, E. and Welsch, R.E. (1980) “Regression diagnostics”, Wiley, New York.

- Chin, H.C. and Quddus, M.A. (2003) “Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 153–159.

- Elvik, R. (2011) “Assessing causality in multivariate accident models”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 253-264.

- Greibe, P. (2003) “Accident prediction models for urban roads”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 173–185.

- Kim, D.G., Washington, S. and Oh, J. (2006) “Modeling crash types: new insights into the effects of covariates on crashes in intersection”, Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 282–292.

- Lord, D. and Mannering, F. L. (2010) “The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives”, Journal of Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 291-305.

- Montgomery, D.C. (2004) “Design and analysis of experiments”, 6nd ed, Wiley, New York.

- Naderan, A. and Shahi, J. (2010) “Aggregate crash prediction models: Introducing crash generation concept”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 339–346.

- Pernia, J., Lu, J. J., Xie, X., Weng, M. and Snider, D. (2002) “Development of models to quantify the impacts of signalization on intersection crashes“, Presented at the 81th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., pp. 1-22.

- Poch, M. and Mannering, F.L. (1996) “Negative binomial analysis of intersection accident frequencies”, Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 122, No.2, pp. 105–113.

- Vogt, A. and Bared J. (1998) “Accident models for two-lane rural segments and intersections”, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., Report FHWA-RD-98-133.

- Wong, S. C., Sze, N. N. and Li, Y.C. (2007) “Contributory factors to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong”, Journal of Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 1107-1113.