Planning Level Regression Models for Prediction of the Number of Crashes on Urban Arterials in Bangladesh

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Technology, Bangladesh

2 Travel Demand Forecasting Engineer, Alberta Transportation, Government of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada

3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh

Abstract

In most of the developing countries, the metropolitan organizations do not assess the safety consequences of alternative transportation systems and one of the reasons is the lack of suitable methodology. The goal of this paper is to develop practical tools for assessing safety consequences of arterial roads in the context of long-term urban transportation plans in Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh. The researchers used the generalized linear modeling approach to develop separate models to predict number of crashes for different levels of crash severity for major arterial segments which have the highest crash rates. The models used five independent variables - length of segment, traffic volume, number of access road, design speed and roadway width - all of which are usually collected or predicted by transportation planners. The study reveals that roadway width and design speed are the governing factors for non-lane based traffic on urban arterials for controlling crashes. The crash prediction models presented in this paper can enable Dhaka’s transport planners to evaluate the safety impact of alternative road networks with regard to the costs and benefits in long-term planning context.

Keywords


- Accident Research Center (2005) “Key road safety facts in Bangladesh, Preliminary Brief Report”, Published by Accident Research Center, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology.

- Chatterjee, A., Everett, J. D., Reiff, B., Schwetz, T. B., Seaver, W. L. and Wegmann, F. J. (2003) “Tools for assessing safety impact of long-range transportation plans in urban areas”, Center for Transportation Research, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, Rep. Prepared for Federal Highway Administration and available through Travel Model Improvement Program Clearing House, Tenn..

- Fazio, J., Holden, J. and Rouphail, N. M. (1993) “Use of freeway conflict rates as an alternative to crash rates in weaving section safety analyses”, Transportation Research Record, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., Vol. 1401, pp. 61–69.

- Hauer, E., NG, J. C. N. and Lovell, J. (1989) “A study of intersection accident exposure”, Proc. 9thAustralian Road Research Board Conference, Vol. 9 (5), pp. 151-160.

- El-Basyouny, K. and Sayed, T. (2009). “Urban arterial accident prediction models with spatial effects”. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2102, pp. 27-33.

- Khan,S.,Shanmugam, R. and Hoeschen, B. (1999)  “Injury, fatal, andproperty damage accident models for highway corridors”, TransportationResearch Record, Transportation Research Board, Washington,D.C., Vol. 1665, pp. 84–92.

- Kononov, J. and Allery,B. K. (2004) “Explicit consideration of safetyin transportation planning and project scoping”, Proc., 83rd AnnualMeeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C..

- Konduri, S. and Sinha, K.C. (2002) “Statistical models for predictionof freeway incidents”, Proc., 7th Int. Conf. on Applications of AdvancesTechnology inTransportation Engineering, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 167–174.

- Kraus,J. F., Anderson,C. L., Arzemanian, S., Salatka, M., Hemyari, P. and Sun, G. (1993) “Epidemiological aspects of fatal and severe injury urban freeway crashes”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 25(3), pp. 229–239.

- Ladrón de Guevara, F., Washington, S. and Oh, J. (2004) “Forecasting crashes at the planning level: simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona”. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1897, pp. 191-199.

- Lord, D., and Persaud, B. N. (2004). Estimating the safety performance of urban road transportation networks. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 36 (4), pp. 609-620.

- Maycock, G. and Hall, R.D. (1984) “Accidents at four-arm roundabouts”, Transport and Road Research Laboratory Report LR1120.

- Miaou, S.P. (1996) “Measuring the goodness-of-fit of accident prediction models”, Publication No. FHWARD- 96–040, FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C..

-Persaud, B.N.and Dzbik,L. (1993)“Accident prediction models forfreeways”, Transportation Research Record, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., Vol. 1401, pp. 55–60.

- Resende, P. T. V. and Benekohal, R. F. (1997) “Development of volume to-capacity based accident prediction models”, Proc., Traffic Congestion and Traffic Safety in the 21stCentury, Chicago, pp. 215–221.

- Shankar, V., Mannering, F. and Barfield, W. (1996) “Statistical analysis of accident severity on rural freeways”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 28 (3), pp. 391–401.

- Turner, S. and Roozenburg, A. (2005) “Accident prediction models for signalized intersection”, IPENZ-TG Technical Conferences, Hyatt Regency, Auckland, September