A Direct Demand Model of Departure Time and Mode for Intercity Passenger Trips

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Msc. Grad., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Travel demand is well announced as a crucial component of transportation planning. This paper aims to develop a direct demand model, denoting a more acceptable abstraction of reality, for intercity passengers in daily work and leisure trips in Tehran province. The model utilizes combined estimation across the data source, collected in 2011, of travelers originating from the city of Tehran and heading toward two destination clusters: intra-province and inter-province. The paper sketches a way to predict simultaneous choice of departure time and travel mode under the influence of zonal (origin, destination, and residence), individual and household socio-demographic, and trip-related variables. The time frame for analysis of departure time is [5-19] and available modes are auto, taxi, bus, and metro. Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Nested Logit (NL) models as behavioral models are selected from discrete choice family to provide appropriate direct demand structure. Besides, the paper discusses Independent Irrelative Alternative (IIA) assumption of the models and demonstrates choice order of NL; Travelers choose departure time prior to mode at first level and then decide on mode at second level. Finally, travel demand elasticity and marginal effect with respect to travel time, age, and auto cost are also highlighted.

Keywords


-Bajwa, S., Bekhor, S., Kuwahara, M., Chung, E. (2008) “Discrete choice modeling of combined mode and departure time”, Transportmetrica, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 155- 177.

-Ben-Akiva, M. E. (1985) “Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel demand”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

-Bhat, C. R. (1998) “Analysis of travel mode and departure time for urban shopping trips”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 361- 371.

-Bhat, C. R. and Guo, J. (2004) “A mixed spatially correlated logit model: formulation and application to residential choice modeling”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 38, No.2, pp. 147-168.

-Bhat, C. R. and Steed, J. (2002) “A continuous-time model of departure time choice for urban shopping trips”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 207- 224.

-Brown, B. (1986) “Modal choice, location demand, and income”, Urban Economics, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 128-139.

-Domencich, T. and McFadden, D. (1975) “Urban travel demand: A behavioural analysis”, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

-Guo, J. Y. and Bhat, C. R. (2001) “Residential location choice modeling: A methodological logit approach”, University of Texas at Austin, TX, USA.

-Habib, K. M. N. (2013) “A joint discretecontinuous model considering budget constraint for the continuous part: application in joint mode and departure time choice modeling”, Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 149- 177.
 
-Habib, K. M. N. (2007) “Modeling activity generation processes”, University of Toronto, Canada.

-Hess, S., Daly, A., Rohr, C. and Hyman, G. (2007) “On the development of time period and mode choice models for use in large scale modeling forecasting systems”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 41, No. 9, pp. 802-826.

-Hess, S., Fowler, M., Adler, T., Bahreinian, A. (2012) “A joint model for vehicle type and fuel type choice: evidence from a crossnested logit study”, Transportation, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 593-625.

-Iglesias, P. (2008) “A joint model of generation, distribution and mode choice for intercity travel”, Proceedings XIV Panamerican Congress on Traffic and Transportation Engineering, September, Colombia.

-Kanafani, A. (1983) “Transportation demand analysis”, New York, CA: McGraw-Hill.

-Khattak, A. J. and Rodriguez, D. (2005) “Travel behavior in neo-traditional neighborhood developments: A case study in USA”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 39, No. 6, pp. 481- 500.

-Kim, J. H., Pagliara, F. and Preston, J. (2005) “The intention to move and residential location choice behavior”, Urban Studies, Vol. 42, No. 9, pp. 1621-1636.

-Kraft, G. (1968) “Demand for intercity passenger travel in the Washington Boston corridor, north-east corridor project report systems analysis and research corporation”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

-Louviere, J. J., Hensher, D. A. and Swait, J. (2000) “Stated choice methods: analysis and applications in marketing transportation and environmental valuation”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

-Manheim, M. L. (1979) “Fundamentals of transportation systems analysis”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

-McFadden, D. (1973) “Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior”, New York, CA: Academic Press.

-Miller, E. J., Roorda, M. J. and Carrasco, J. A. (2005) “A tour-based model of travel mode choice”, Transportation, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 399-422.

-Newman, J., Vincent, L. and Bernardin, J. R. (2010) “Hierarchical ordering of nests in a joint mode and destination choice model”, Transportation, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 677-688.

-Ortuzar, J. and Willumsen, L. (2011) “Modeling transport”, United Kingdom: Wiley Press, 4th edition.

-Ozbay, K. and Yanmaz-Tuzel, O. (2007) “Valuation of travel time and departure time choice in the presence of time-of-day pricing”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 577- 590.

-Richards, M. G. and Ben-Akiva, M. E. (1974) “A simultaneous destination and mode choice model for shopping trips”, Transportation, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 343-356.

-Shahangian, R. S. (2012) “Gender differences in response to policies targeting commute to automobile-restricted central business district: stated preference study of mode choice in Tehran”, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

-Tahmasebi, S. (2000) “Comparison and evaluation of sequential and direct models of destination and mode choice: case study of Mashad”, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

-Tarahan Parseh Transportation Research Institute (2012) “Transportation master plan of intercity road travels of Tehran province: data survey”, Tarahan Parseh Transportation Research Institute, Tehran.

-Train, K. E. (2002) “Discrete choice methods with simulation”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
 
-Vega, A. and Reynolds-Feighan, A. (2009) “A methodological framework for the study of residential location and travel-to-work mode choice under central and suburban employment destination patterns”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol.43, No. 4, pp. 401-419.
 
-Vickrey, W. (1969) “Congestion theory and transport investment”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No.2, pp. 251- 261.

-Wen, C. H. (2010) “Alternative tree structures for estimating nested logit models with mixed preference data”, Transportmetrica, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 291-309.

-Wilson, A. G. (1974) “Urban and regional models in geography and planning, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Chichester.

-Williams, H. C. W. L. (1977) “On the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures of user benefit”, Environment and Planning, Vol. 9A, pp. 285–344.

-Yang, L., Zheng, G. and Zhu, X. (2013) “Cross-nested logit model for the joint choice of residential location, travel mode, and departure time”, Habitat International, Vol. 38, pp. 157-166.

-Yao, E. and Morikawa, T. (2005) “A study of an integrated intercity travel demand model”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 369- 381.