Priority Order for Improvement of Intersections using Pedestrian Crash Prediction Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 MSc. Grad. Faculty of Civil Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 PhD. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

4 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract

One of the most important needs of pedestrians is safety at crossing points, especially at intersections. Intersections are important parts of the urban road network because any disruption in them reduces the capacity of the entire network. The main objective of this research is to propose an appropriate method for prioritizing urban intersections with considering the important factors affecting pedestrian crashes to promote the safety level of pedestrians at intersections of the 11th district of Tehran. In this paper, after comparing different models, finally, the negative binomial model was developed to predict the effects of a set of factors expected to the frequency of pedestrian crashes. According to the proposed model, a larger volume of pedestrians and vehicles reduced the safety of intersections. Also imposing traffic restrictions in the central business district causes increasing motorcycle flows and has led to more dangerous area. Also, according to the results of prioritization using this method showed that the intersection of Imam Khomeini and Valiasr with an improvement potential of 6.93 has the most potential of improvement. Based on crash reduction factor, a method for estimating the effect of a variable on crash frequencies, one-unit increasing in natural logarithm of average pedestrian and vehicle volumes, commercial land use and number of public transport stations will increase the crash frequencies by 29.82, 83.49, 56.99 and 14.34 percents, respectively. Also, when sidewalk effective widths increased by one-unit, the probability of pedestrian crashes at intersections will reduced by 14.87 percent.

Keywords

References

-     AASHTO (2010) "Task force on development of the highway safety manual, and transportation officials", Transportation Research Board, Highway safety manual.
-     Ayati, A. and Abbasi, A. (2011) "Application of zero-inflated regression models in modeling crashes on urban highways", IQBQ, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 1-15.
-     Ayati, E., and Ghasemi Noqabi, M. (2010) "Research note: prediction of the frequency of damage-only crashes at four-leg signalized intersections", Journal of Transportation, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 287-300. (In Persian)
-     Ayati, E., Zakeri Sardroodi, J. A. and Sadeghi, A. A., (2010) "Modeling the frequency of crash occurrence at rail-road crossings", Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 2 No. 2. (In Persian)
-     Bennet, S. A. and Yiannakoulias, N. (2015) "Motor-vehicle collisions involving child pedestrians at intersection and mid-block locations", Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 78, pp. 94-103.
-     BITRE (The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics), (2013) "Road Deaths Australia", Statistical Summary, Canberra ACT.
-     Chang, L. Y. (2005) "Analysis of freeway crash frequencies: negative binomial regression versus artificial neural network", Safety science, Vol. 43, No. 8, pp. 541-557.
-     Demetriades, D., Murray, J., Martin, M., Velmahos, G., Salim, A., Alo, K. and Rhee, P. (2004) "Pedestrians injured by automobiles: relationship of age to injury type and severity", Journal of the American College of Surgeons, Vol. 199, No. 3, pp. 382-387.
-     Elyasi, M., Saffarzadeh, M., Boroujerdian, A., Semnarshad, M., and Mazaheri, M. (2017) "Prioritization of Suburban Crash Factors Based on Analytical Network Process", International Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 197-209.
-     European Commission, (2016) "Annual Crash Report", Directorate General for Transport.
-     Hauer, E., Council, F. M., and Mohammedshah, Y. (2004) "Safety models for urban four-lane undivided road segments", Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1897, No. 1, pp. 96–105.
-     Highway Capacity Manual, (2010) "HCM 2010", Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington DC.
-     Hosseinpour, M., Yahaya, A. S. and Sadullah, A. F. (2014) "Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency and severity of head-on crashes: Case studies from Malaysian Federal Roads", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 62, pp. 209-222.
-     Jermprapai, K. and Srinivasan, S. (2014) "Planning-level model for assessing pedestrian safety", Transportation Research Record, Vol. 2464, No. 1, pp. 109-117.
-     Jonsson, T., Ivan, J.., and Zhang, C. (2007) "Crash prediction models for intersections on rural multilane highways: differences by collision type". Transportation research record, Vol. 2019, No. 1, pp. 91–98.
-     Kim, J. Y. (2016) "The influences of intersection roadway characteristics on pedestrian-vehicle collisions", (Doctoral dissertation, UCLA).
-     Kim, D. G., Washington, S. and  Oh, J. (2006) "Modeling crash types: new insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections", Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 282–292.
-     LaScala, E. A., Gruenewald, P. J. and Johnson, F. W. (2004) "An ecological study of the locations of schools and child pedestrian injury collisions", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 569-576.
-     Leden, L., Gårder, P. and Johansson, C. (2006) "Safe pedestrian crossings for children and elderly", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 289-294.
-     Li, D., Ranjitkar, P., Zhao, Y., Yi, H. and Rashidi, S. (2017) "Analyzing pedestrian crash injury severity under different weather conditions", Traffic Injury Prevention, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 427-430.
-     Li, Y., Nan, S., Gong, X. and Ma, R. (2019) "A geometric design method for intersections with pre-signal systems using a phase swap sorting strategy", PloS one, Vol. 14, No. 5.
-     Litman, T. and Steele, R. (2017) "Land use impacts on transport. Canada: Victoria", Transport Policy Institute.
-     Miranda-Moreno, L. F., Morency, P. and El-Geneidy, A. M. (2011) "The link between built environment, pedestrian activity and pedestrian–vehicle collision occurrence at signalized intersections", Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 1624-1634.
-     Mirbaha, B., Saffarzadeh, M. and Noruzoliaee, M. (2013) "A model for predicting schoolchildren accidents in the vicinity of rural roads based on geometric design and traffic conditions", International Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 25-33.
-     Mohammadi, M. A., Samaranayake, V. A., and Bham, G. H. (2014) "Crash frequency modeling using negative binomial models: An application of generalized estimating equation to longitudinal data", Analytic Methods in Crash Research, Vol. 2, pp. 52-69.
-     Mooney, S. J., DiMaggio, C. J., Lovasi, G. S., Neckerman, K. M., Bader, M. D., Teitler, J. O. and Rundle, A. G. (2016) "Use of Google Street View to assess environmental contributions to pedestrian injury", American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 106, No. 3, pp. 462-469.
-     Moudon, A. V., Lin, L., Jiao, J., Hurvitz, P., and Reeves, P. (2011) "The risk of pedestrian injury and fatality in collisions with motor vehicles, a social ecological study of state routes and city streets in King County, Washington", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 11-24.
-     Mothafer, G. I., Yamamoto, T. and Shankar, V. N. (2017) "A negative binomial crash sum model for time invariant heterogeneity in panel crash data: Some insights", Analytic Methods In Crash Research, Vol. 14, pp. 1-9.
-     Murphy, B., Levinson, D. M. and Owen, A. (2017) "Evaluating the safety in numbers effect for pedestrians at urban intersections", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 106, pp.181-190.
-     National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2017) "Traffic Safety Fact", U.S. Department of Transportation NSA, Vol. 230, pp. 8-10.
-     Noland, R. B., Quddus, M. A. (2005) "Congestion and safety: a spatial analysis of London", Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 39, No. 7, pp. 737–754.
-     Pulugurtha, S. S. and Sambhara, V. R. (2011) "Pedestrian crash estimation models for signalized intersections", Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 439-446.
-     Qureshi, M., Virkler, M. R., Sanford Bernhardt, K. L., Spring, G., Avalokita, S., Yathapu, N. and Gibbons, K. (2003) "Highway rail crossing project selection" (No. RDT 03-017,).
-     Semnarshad, M., Elyasi, M., Saffarzadeh, M. and Saffarzadeh, A. (2018) "Identification and prioritization of crash-prone segments using international roughness index", International Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 35-48.
-     Siddiqui, C., Abdel-Aty, M. and Choi, K. (2012) "Macroscopic spatial analysis of pedestrian and bicycle crashes", Crash Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 45, pp. 382-391.
-     Tehran Municipality (2017) "Abstract data of transportation and traffic organization of Tehran municipality", Deputy of Transportation and Traffic of Tehran Municipality. (In Persian)
 
-     Ticali, D. and Corriere, F. (2018) "Turbo roundabouts: geometric design parameters and performance analysis", GSTF Journal on Computing (JoC), Vol. 2, No. 1.
-     Vaziri, E., Khashayeepur, M., Abedini, M., Ayati, A., Chaychi Motlagh, M. and Naghdizadeh, M. (2014) "Modeling the forecast number of traffic accidents in Tehran", Tehran Traffic Control Company.
-     Washington, S. P., Karlaftis, M. G. and Mannering, F. (2010) "Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis", Chapman and Hall/CRC.
-     Xie, K., Ozbay, K., Kurkcu, A., and Yang, H. (2017) "Analysis of traffic crashes involving pedestrians using big data: Investigation of contributing factors and identification of hotspots", Risk Analysis, Vol. 37, No. 8, pp. 1459-1476.
Xie, S. Q., Dong, N., Wong, S. C., Huang, H., and Xu, P. (2018) "Bayesian approach to model pedestrian crashes at signalized intersections with measurement errors in exposure", Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 121, pp. 285-294.
International Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 3 - Serial Number 27
January 2020
Pages 297-313

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics